The conclave to elect the next pope will be guided by issues that impact the Catholic Church worldwide, and not those of singular concern to the church in the West or “the left-right divides that we all love to talk about,” said John Allen Jr., editor of Crux.
Mr. Allen was speaking as part of a panel of Vatican journalists in Rome on 29 April about the pontificate of Pope Francis and the election of his successor.
He was joined by Cindy Wooden, editor of Catholic News Service, Margherita Stancati of The Wall Street Journal, William Cash, former publisher of The Catholic Herald in London, and Elise Ann Allen, senior reporter for Crux. CNEWA organized the panel as part of a weeklong program in Rome.
“We need to let go of the fact that issues that bedeviled the church in the West aren’t necessarily going to be the talking points in the engines that drive the train in this kind of conclave,” said Mr. Allen. “The energy and the imagination very much, to a historically unprecedented degree, is going to come from the developing world.”
The current conclave, which began on 7 May, includes 52 cardinal electors from Europe, 23 from Asia, 17 from Africa, 17 from South America, 16 from North America, four from Central America, and four from Oceania.
“The fact that there is a historically significant representation of cardinals from the Global South … means that finally the top of the church looks more like bottom,” said Mr. Allen.
Of the 1.3 billion Catholics globally, 67 million — or 6 percent — are in the United States, he said.
“Put another way, 94 percent of the Catholics in the world are not Americans. And if you think therefore that American experiences and perspectives and backgrounds are going to drive this process, you’re living in a fantasy,” he said.
In interviews prior to the conclave with non-voting cardinals over the age of 80, Ms. Allen said unity within the church in addressing the challenges of the day emerged as an important theme for this conclave. “And they were very insistent that geography doesn’t matter,” she said.
“The election of Karol Wojtyla in 1978 forever ended the Italian monopoly on the papacy. The election of Jorge Maria Bergoglio in 2013 ended the European monopoly,” said Mr. Allen.
While he does not expect the next pope to come from the Global South necessarily, “today, we live in a new world in which the pope could come from anywhere,” he said. “Geography is dead as a voting issue.”
Ms. Wooden said the current makeup of the college of cardinals “gives an edge” to bishops “in mission territory,” and “almost the majority of members of the conclave are archbishops of actual dioceses.”
“I think there still is an ‘allergic reaction’ to electing someone who does not have broad and deep pastoral experience,” she said.
Mr. Allen compared the current conclave “in terms of the complexities of the geopolitical situation” with the conclave of 1939, held six months before the start of World War II.
“Whether we’re talking about the rise of authoritarian governments around the world or a wildly volatile economic situation and the uncertainties that that creates … the pope is going to have to navigate the bark of Peter through all of that,” he said.
Ms. Wooden said she expects the church’s recent experience with the Synod on Synodality, in which most of the cardinals participated, to influence the conclave as well.
“Part of the goal was to help people be more comfortable with the diversity that is an essential part of being a church that is catholic,” she continued. “You cannot pretend that your cultural differences don’t impact how you believe, how you manifest your faith, what kind of prayer you prefer.
“I hope that that experience of learning how to truly listen to one another respectfully and prayerfully can lead to … a calmer and non-divisive church,” she said.
The panelists commented on how the cardinals’ lack of familiarity with each other could impact the conclave. Of the cardinal electors, 20 were elevated to the college of cardinals last December and 18 were elevated in September 2023.
Mr. Allen posited this lack of familiarity could lead to either a “protracted conclave” or “a very short conclave as everybody plays a game of follow the leader,” where cardinals who feel “out of their element … look for guidance to someone who seems to know what they’re doing.”
Ms. Wooden said “the more influential cardinals” in the conclave include presidents of the regional conferences of bishops. Among the influential cardinals in the Curia, she named Cardinal Robert Prevost, O.S.A., prefect of the Dicastery for Bishops, Cardinal Luis Antonio Tagle, pro-prefect for the Dicastery for Evangelization, Cardinal Claudio Gugerotti, prefect of the Dicastery for the Eastern Churches, and Cardinal Pietro Parolin, Vatican secretary of state.
“While I don’t believe all of them are actually potential popes,” she said, “I do think they all have a certain weight in influencing others and in providing advice and counsel.”
The panelists also shared their observations about how the Vatican changed during Francis’ 13-year pontificate.
Beyond “stylistic differences,” Pope Francis “very much took the reins of governance in his own hands,” said Mr. Allen.
Ms. Wooden noted the changes Pope Francis made to the Curia “regarding the identity and authority of bishops’ conferences.”
“When he remade the Curia, even before he published his apostolic constitution ‘Praedicate evangelium,’ he made it clear to the Curial offices that the bishops do not answer to them. They answer to the bishops,” she said. “And so, I think in approaching the wider world, Pope Francis relied a lot on the bishops who were actually in those situations.”
Ms. Stancati spoke of the “informal” way Francis “related to the outside world.”
“He was very outspoken,” she said. “He didn’t let world leaders off the hook, and he took very strong political positions on many issues.”
Ms. Wooden responded, saying that political involvement is part of the papal office. She cited John Paul II as an example.
“You cannot claim that Pope John Paul II kept his hands off of politics,” she said. “His body of his social teaching is huge and profound, but also just politically: helping to bring down communism, shaking his finger at the priests who were in part of the government in Nicaragua.”
“If you are speaking on behalf of human beings, human dignity, human rights, religious freedom, it’s part of the job, and it’s not something that Pope Francis invented,” she said.
Mr. Cash said the “big change” he observed during the Francis pontificate “is how divided the church has become,” including “between the hierarchy and Catholics themselves.”
“Whoever the next pope is has got to be someone who heals wounds and brings the church together, and they’ve got to try and find a unity candidate,” he said. “I think that’s absolutely central.”
At the reception that followed the panel discussion, Mr. Allen received CNEWA’s Fatih & Culture Award for his outstanding contribution to Catholic journalism.